A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alex Hernandez goes up against Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the Guayaquil round of 16. Camilo Ugo Carabelli comes in at 3 wins from the last ten. Alex Hernandez is 2-8 across recent matches.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. Hernandez comes in off a compressed schedule. Hernandez needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.