US Open · R32 · Hard · best of 5 · Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 PM UTC
Alex Michelsen vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar — result and pick review
By The Maiden Desk · September 4, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Result
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Alex Michelsen won 7-6 6-4 6-3
This one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 54% on Alex Michelsen, who won 7-6 6-4 6-3.
Friday's US Open round of 32 pits Alex Michelsen against Daniel Merida Aguilar on hard. Alex Michelsen has won 7 of the last 10. Daniel Merida Aguilar has won 8 of the last 10.
Hold strength tells the story — 69.9% versus 64.6% on first-serve points in Michelsen's favor. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Michelsen fractionally more likely to land the big points.
The numbers behind the pick
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Alex Michelsen
1968
Daniel Merida Aguilar
1913
Overall rating
Alex Michelsen
1957
Daniel Merida Aguilar
1942
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Alex Michelsen
Daniel Merida Aguilar
1st serve in
66.2%
68.8%
1st serve points won
69.9%
64.6%
2nd serve points won
50.8%
47.5%
Form
Alex Michelsen
7–3
Daniel Merida Aguilar
8–2
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Frequently asked questions
Who won Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar at US Open?
Alex Michelsen won 7-6 6-4 6-3.
Was the Alex Michelsen vs Daniel Merida Aguilar prediction correct?
This one lands on the correct side of the ledger: 54% on Alex Michelsen, who won 7-6 6-4 6-3.