A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Alex Michelsen goes up against Jack Draper in the Washington round of 32. Jack Draper comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Alex Michelsen is rolling — 4 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.

The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.

Hold strength tells the story — 74.3% versus 69.7% on first-serve points in Draper's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Draper is exactly that — a lean.