Washington · R32 · Hard · best of 3 · Jul 28, 2026, 4:30 PM UTC · Cancelled
Alex Michelsen vs. Jack Draper — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · July 28, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Alex Michelsen goes up against Jack Draper in the Washington round of 32. Jack Draper comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Alex Michelsen is rolling — 4 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.3% versus 69.7% on first-serve points in Draper's favor. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Draper is exactly that — a lean.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-147(59.5% Draper)
Sources: . These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Frequently asked questions
Who is predicted to win Alex Michelsen vs Jack Draper?
Maiden gives Jack Draper a 60% chance to beat Alex Michelsen in the Washington round of 32 on July 28, 2026.
How confident is the Jack Draper pick?
60% is a “Lean” tier pick. When we make a pick around 60%, picks in that range have won 66% of the time (238 so far). See the track record page for the full table.
What is the head-to-head record between Alex Michelsen and Jack Draper?