Tuesday's Washington round of 32 pits Alex Michelsen against Mackenzie Mcdonald on hard. Alex Michelsen has won 5 in a row and 8 of the last 10 overall. Mackenzie Mcdonald limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.
Alex Michelsen simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. If Michelsen plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.