Sunday's US Open round of 16 pits Alex Michelsen against Tomas Martin Etcheverry on hard. Alex Michelsen has won 7 of the last 10. Tomas Martin Etcheverry is 4-6 across recent matches.

Alex Michelsen simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Michelsen — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.