Saturday's Estoril semifinal pits Alexander Blockx against Luciano Darderi on clay. Alexander Blockx is 6-4 across recent matches. Luciano Darderi comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.

This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.

The serve is where this match separates: Blockx has been winning 76.2% of first-serve points to Darderi's 70.9%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Blockx is exactly that — a lean.