A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Alexander Bublik goes up against Alexander Zverev in the Shanghai round of 16. Alexander Zverev comes in at 8 wins from the last ten. Alexander Bublik is 6-4 across recent matches.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. If Zverev plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.