A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Alexander Bublik goes up against Jakub Mensik in the Beijing round of 32. Jakub Mensik is 5-5 across recent matches. Alexander Bublik is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (5 of the last 10).

Jakub Mensik is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Mensik around 55%. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Mensik fractionally more likely to land the big points.