Tuesday's French Open first round pits Alexander Bublik against Jan Lennard Struff on clay. Alexander Bublik comes in at 5 wins from the last ten. Jan Lennard Struff is 3-7 across recent matches.

The ledger favors Jan Lennard Struff, 4-3 across their 7 meetings with Alexander Bublik. On clay specifically it reads 3-0 Struff — worth more than the overall number this week.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Bublik.