Alexander Ritschard and Raul Brancaccio meet in the round of 16 at Lisbon on Thursday. Alexander Ritschard has won 6 of the last 10. Raul Brancaccio is 4-6 across recent matches.

Alexander Ritschard simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Ritschard — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.