Alexander Zverev and Botic Van De Zandschulp meet in the quarterfinal at US Open on Wednesday. Alexander Zverev has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall. Botic Van De Zandschulp has won 3 in a row and 7 of the last 10 overall.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Zverev win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.