A spot in the next round is at stake on Sunday, when Alexander Zverev goes up against Quentin Halys in the Shanghai round of 32. Alexander Zverev is 8-2 across recent matches. Quentin Halys is 4-6 across recent matches.

Alexander Zverev is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Zverev around 80%. Anything other than a Zverev win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.