Thursday's Ningbo round of 16 pits Alexandra Eala against Diana Shnaider on hard. Diana Shnaider has won 7 of the last 10. Alexandra Eala comes in at 5 wins from the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Shnaider fractionally more likely to land the big points.