A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alexandra Eala goes up against Diana Shnaider in the Tokyo quarterfinal. Diana Shnaider comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Alexandra Eala has won 5 of the last 10.

Diana Shnaider is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Shnaider around 58%. Little separates them; Shnaider gets the nod on the finest of margins.