A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Alexandre Muller goes up against Tomas Machac in the Jinan round of 32. Tomas Machac has won 3 of the last 10. Alexandre Muller is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (4 of the last 10).

Tomas Machac is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Machac around 61%. The edge belongs to Machac — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.