Monday's US Open first round pits Alexei Popyrin against Grigor Dimitrov on hard. Grigor Dimitrov has dropped 2 straight and sits at 6-4 over the last ten. Alexei Popyrin has won 4 of the last 10.

Grigor Dimitrov is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Dimitrov around 59%. Little separates them; Dimitrov gets the nod on the finest of margins.