Alexei Popyrin and Thiago Agustin Tirante meet in the round of 32 at Montreal on Saturday. Thiago Agustin Tirante is rolling — 4 straight wins, 7 of 10 in recent play. Alexei Popyrin is 4-6 across recent matches.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Tirante fractionally more likely to land the big points.