A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Alexis Galarneau goes up against Pavel Kotov in the Shanghai quarterfinal. Pavel Kotov has won 5 of the last 10. Alexis Galarneau is 7-3 across recent matches.

Pavel Kotov simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Kotov.