Friday's Suzhou quarterfinal pits Aliaksandra Sasnovich against Elvina Kalieva on hard. Aliaksandra Sasnovich has won 6 of the last 10. Elvina Kalieva is 2-8 across recent matches.

Aliaksandra Sasnovich is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Sasnovich around 73%. Kalieva comes in off a compressed schedule. Kalieva needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.