Friday's Sao Paulo quarterfinal pits Alina Charaeva against Anna Blinkova on hard. Anna Blinkova is 6-4 across recent matches. Alina Charaeva has won 5 of the last 10.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Blinkova fractionally more likely to land the big points.