Thursday's Sao Paulo round of 16 pits Alina Charaeva against Elina Avanesyan on hard. Elina Avanesyan has won 6 of the last 10. Alina Charaeva limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Avanesyan fractionally more likely to land the big points.