Monday's Beijing round of 32 pits Alina Charaeva against Sonay Kartal on hard. Sonay Kartal comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Alina Charaeva has won 6 of the last 10.

Sonay Kartal is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Kartal around 67%. Charaeva is running on fumes after a brutal stretch of scheduling; Kartal arrives with very little recovery time. Kartal should have enough here, though Charaeva has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.