A spot in the next round is at stake on Wednesday, when Alina Charaeva goes up against Yulia Putintseva in the Iasi round of 16. Yulia Putintseva comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Alina Charaeva has won 7 of the last 10.
The two have never played — a first meeting always adds a layer of uncertainty the numbers can't fully capture.
Yulia Putintseva simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Putintseva fractionally more likely to land the big points.