US Open · R128 · Hard · best of 3 · Sep 1, 2026, 3:30 PM UTC
Alina Korneeva vs. Madison Keys — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · September 1, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Alina Korneeva and Madison Keys meet in the first round at US Open on Tuesday. Madison Keys comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Alina Korneeva is 3-7 across recent matches.
Madison Keys is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Keys around 68%. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Keys.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-210(67.8% Keys)
Market-234(70.1% Keys)
Sources: . These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Alina Korneeva
1625
Madison Keys
1884
Overall rating
Alina Korneeva
1663
Madison Keys
1979
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Alina Korneeva
Madison Keys
1st serve in
58.2%
64.3%
1st serve points won
63.5%
65.5%
2nd serve points won
42%
44.8%
Form
Alina Korneeva
3–7
Madison Keys
6–4
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
Who is predicted to win Alina Korneeva vs Madison Keys?
Maiden gives Madison Keys a 68% chance to beat Alina Korneeva in the US Open first round on September 1, 2026.
How confident is the Madison Keys pick?
68% is a “Confident” tier pick. When we make a pick around 68%, picks in that range have won 71% of the time (69 so far). See the track record page for the full table.