Alycia Parks and Kimberly Birrell meet in the round of 16 at Tokyo on Thursday. Kimberly Birrell is searching for form, having lost 2 in a row (7 of the last 10). Alycia Parks has won 4 of the last 10.

Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Birrell fractionally more likely to land the big points.