A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Amanda Anisimova goes up against Lilli Tagger in the US Open round of 64. Amanda Anisimova is 7-3 across recent matches. Lilli Tagger is 6-4 across recent matches.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Tagger needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.