A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Anastasia Potapova goes up against Leolia Jeanjean in the US Open round of 64. Anastasia Potapova has won 5 of the last 10. Leolia Jeanjean limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Potapova.