Anastasia Potapova and Tereza Valentova meet in the first round at US Open on Tuesday. Tereza Valentova is 6-4 across recent matches. Anastasia Potapova has dropped 2 straight and sits at 5-5 over the last ten.

On paper it's close: comparable ratings, comparable serve numbers, small margins everywhere. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Valentova is exactly that — a lean.