Anastasia Zakharova and Naomi Osaka meet in the first round at US Open on Tuesday. Naomi Osaka is 7-3 across recent matches. Anastasia Zakharova is 5-5 across recent matches.

The serve is where this match separates: Osaka has been winning 70.9% of first-serve points to Zakharova's 59.2%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. The edge belongs to Osaka — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.