Thursday's Bastad round of 16 pits Andrea Pellegrino against Andrey Rublev on clay. Andrey Rublev limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Andrea Pellegrino has won 5 of the last 10.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
The serve is where this match separates: Rublev has been winning 74.2% of first-serve points to Pellegrino's 66.8%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. Pellegrino comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Rublev is exactly that — a lean.