Thursday's Lisbon round of 16 pits Andrea Pellegrino against Francesco Passaro on clay. Francesco Passaro brings a 6-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Andrea Pellegrino is searching for form, having lost 3 in a row (4 of the last 10).
The serve is where this match separates: Passaro has been winning 70.5% of first-serve points to Pellegrino's 65.6%, and on clay that gap compounds fast. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Passaro is exactly that — a lean.
The numbers behind the pick
Serve
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Andrea Pellegrino | Francesco Passaro |
|---|
| 1st serve in | 63.2% | 62.4% |
| 1st serve points won | 65.6% | 70.5% |
| 2nd serve points won | 52.4% | 52.7% |
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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