Wednesday's Trieste round of 16 pits Andrea Pellegrino against Raul Brancaccio on clay. Andrea Pellegrino is 6-4 across recent matches. Raul Brancaccio has won 3 of the last 10.
This is the first career meeting between the two, which means no head-to-head baggage on either side of the net.
Andrea Pellegrino simply rates much higher on clay, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Pellegrino is exactly that — a lean.