A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Andrea Pellegrino goes up against Thiago Monteiro in the San Marino round of 16. Andrea Pellegrino comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Thiago Monteiro is 6-4 across recent matches.

The underlying stats are tight across the board — this is a matchup decided by a handful of points. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Pellegrino is exactly that — a lean.