Tuesday's Hamburg round of 32 pits Andrej Nedic against Ergi Kirkin on clay. Andrej Nedic limps in on a 2-match losing skid, just 4 wins in 10. Ergi Kirkin has dropped 4 straight and sits at 2-8 over the last ten.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on clay, and our number follows from it. The edge belongs to Nedic — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.