US Open · R64 · Hard · best of 5 · Sep 2, 2026, 3:10 PM UTC
Andrey Rublev vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — result and pick review
By The Maiden Desk · September 2, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
Share result
Result
✗ Pick wrong
Daniel Merida Aguilar won 6-7 6-2 6-4 6-4
Missed it. We had Andrey Rublev at 53%, but Daniel Merida Aguilar won 6-7 6-2 6-4 6-4.
Andrey Rublev and Daniel Merida Aguilar meet in the round of 64 at US Open on Wednesday. Andrey Rublev is 7-3 across recent matches. Daniel Merida Aguilar comes in at 7 wins from the last ten.
Rublev's 74.2% behind the first serve (against 64.4% for Aguilar) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Rublev is exactly that — a lean.
The numbers behind the pick
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Andrey Rublev
1832
Daniel Merida Aguilar
1863
Overall rating
Andrey Rublev
1903
Daniel Merida Aguilar
1906
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Andrey Rublev
Daniel Merida Aguilar
1st serve in
59.7%
69.1%
1st serve points won
74.2%
64.4%
2nd serve points won
51.4%
47.3%
Form
Andrey Rublev
7–3
Daniel Merida Aguilar
7–3
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
One email each morning with the day's free picks in full, tennis included, published before play starts and graded afterwards. Our nine-chapter beginner's guide to prediction markets comes with it, free. Unsubscribe anytime.
Frequently asked questions
Who won Andrey Rublev vs Daniel Merida Aguilar at US Open?
Daniel Merida Aguilar won 6-7 6-2 6-4 6-4.
Was the Andrey Rublev vs Daniel Merida Aguilar prediction correct?
Missed it. We had Andrey Rublev at 53%, but Daniel Merida Aguilar won 6-7 6-2 6-4 6-4.