A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Andrey Rublev goes up against Sebastian Baez in the Bastad quarterfinal. Andrey Rublev limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 6 wins in 10. Sebastian Baez comes in at 6 wins from the last ten.
The ledger favors Sebastian Baez, 1-0 across their 1 meetings with Andrey Rublev. On clay specifically it reads 1-0 Baez — worth more than the overall number this week.
Hold strength tells the story — 74.2% versus 65.1% on first-serve points in Rublev's favor. Rublev comes in off a compressed schedule; Baez comes in off a compressed schedule. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Rublev fractionally more likely to land the big points.