Anhelina Kalinina and Jasmine Paolini meet in the round of 32 at Ningbo on Tuesday. Jasmine Paolini is 5-5 across recent matches. Anhelina Kalinina limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 3 wins in 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Paolini.