Thursday's Osaka round of 16 pits Ann Li against Zeynep Sonmez on hard. Ann Li has won 7 of the last 10. Zeynep Sonmez comes in at 4 wins from the last ten.

The serve is where this match separates: Li has been winning 65.3% of first-serve points to Sonmez's 60.6%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Expect resistance, but the match-level math tilts clearly toward Li.