Tokyo · R32 · Hard · best of 3 · Oct 1, 2026, 1:00 AM UTC · Cancelled
Arthur Fery vs. Lorenzo Musetti — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · October 1, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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A spot in the next round is at stake on Thursday, when Arthur Fery goes up against Lorenzo Musetti in the Tokyo round of 32. Lorenzo Musetti has won 6 of the last 10. Arthur Fery is 6-4 across recent matches.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Little separates them; Musetti gets the nod on the finest of margins.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-150(59.9% Musetti)
Market-200(66.7% Musetti)
Sources: Market price (via our tennis data provider). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Arthur Fery
1750
Lorenzo Musetti
1902
Overall rating
Arthur Fery
1884
Lorenzo Musetti
1988
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Arthur Fery
Lorenzo Musetti
1st serve in
62.3%
63.8%
1st serve points won
68.8%
69.3%
2nd serve points won
53.3%
52%
Form
Arthur Fery
6–4
Lorenzo Musetti
6–4
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Who is predicted to win Arthur Fery vs Lorenzo Musetti?
Maiden gives Lorenzo Musetti a 60% chance to beat Arthur Fery in the Tokyo round of 32 on October 1, 2026.
How confident is the Lorenzo Musetti pick?
60% is a “Lean” tier pick. When we make a pick around 60%, picks in that range have won 67% of the time (299 so far). See the track record page for the full table.