Sunday brings the Cincinnati final: Arthur Fils against Frances Tiafoe. Arthur Fils brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Frances Tiafoe is rolling — 5 straight wins, 8 of 10 in recent play.

Arthur Fils is clearly higher-rated on hard — our number puts Fils around 62%. Tiafoe comes in off a compressed schedule. The edge belongs to Fils — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.