A spot in the next round is at stake on Tuesday, when Arthur Fils goes up against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the Basel round of 32. Arthur Fils comes in at 6 wins from the last ten. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard limps in on a 7-match losing skid, just 2 wins in 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Perricard needs several things to break right at once; the percentages say they usually don't.