Tokyo · QF · Hard · best of 3 · Oct 4, 2026, 7:00 AM UTC
Arthur Fils vs. Valentin Vacherot — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · October 4, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Sunday's Tokyo quarterfinal pits Arthur Fils against Valentin Vacherot on hard. Arthur Fils has won 8 of the last 10. Valentin Vacherot has won 6 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Fils should have enough here, though Vacherot has the tools to make the scoreboard uncomfortable.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-182(64.6% Fils)
Market-324(76.4% Fils)
Sources: Market price (via our tennis data provider). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Arthur Fils
2051
Valentin Vacherot
1908
Overall rating
Arthur Fils
2118
Valentin Vacherot
1932
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Arthur Fils
Valentin Vacherot
1st serve in
61.3%
65.1%
1st serve points won
74%
72.4%
2nd serve points won
50.1%
50%
Form
Arthur Fils
8–2
Valentin Vacherot
6–4
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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Who is predicted to win Arthur Fils vs Valentin Vacherot?
Maiden gives Arthur Fils a 65% chance to beat Valentin Vacherot in the Tokyo quarterfinal on October 4, 2026.
How confident is the Arthur Fils pick?
65% is a “Confident” tier pick. When we make a pick around 65%, picks in that range have won 62% of the time (254 so far). See the track record page for the full table.