It all comes down to Sunday at Los Cabos, where Arthur Gea faces Denis Shapovalov for the trophy. Denis Shapovalov has won 3 in a row and 5 of the last 10 overall. Arthur Gea brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten.
The serve is where this match separates: Shapovalov has been winning 74.7% of first-serve points to Gea's 67.2%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. A tiebreak or two would surprise nobody, with Shapovalov fractionally more likely to land the big points.
The numbers behind the pick
Serve
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Arthur Gea | Denis Shapovalov |
|---|
| 1st serve in | 59.7% | 58.7% |
| 1st serve points won | 67.2% | 74.7% |
| 2nd serve points won | 48.6% | 50% |
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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