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The live win probability is Pro.
Our number for this match, updated the moment each set is complete, with the pre-match number beside it so you can see how far it has moved.
Arthur Gea and Hubert Hurkacz meet in the round of 16 at Beijing on Friday. Hubert Hurkacz is 8-2 across recent matches. Arthur Gea has won 9 of the last 10.
The serve is where this match separates: Hurkacz has been winning 75.9% of first-serve points to Gea's 67.5%, and on hard that gap compounds fast. Hurkacz comes in off a compressed schedule. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Hurkacz is exactly that — a lean.
Sources: Market price (via our tennis data provider). These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Hard rating
Overall rating
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Arthur Gea | Hubert Hurkacz |
|---|---|---|
| 1st serve in | 59.8% | 63.2% |
| 1st serve points won | 67.5% | 75.9% |
| 2nd serve points won | 48.4% | 49.3% |
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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