A spot in the next round is at stake on Friday, when Arthur Rinderknech goes up against Frances Tiafoe in the Montreal round of 32. Frances Tiafoe is 8-2 across recent matches. Arthur Rinderknech has won 4 of the last 10.

There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. This one is close to a coin flip, and the lean toward Tiafoe is exactly that — a lean.