US Open · R128 · Hard · best of 3 · Aug 31, 2026, 3:40 PM UTC
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Camila Osorio — preview and prediction
By The Maiden Desk · August 31, 2026
Every number below was fixed before the match and graded against the official result.
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Monday's US Open first round pits Aryna Sabalenka against Camila Osorio on hard. Aryna Sabalenka comes in at 7 wins from the last ten. Camila Osorio limps in on a 3-match losing skid, just 5 wins in 10.
Sabalenka's 67% behind the first serve (against 61.6% for Osorio) means break chances should be scarce in one direction. If Sabalenka plays anywhere close to a normal level, this ends in relatively comfortable fashion.
The numbers behind the pick
Our number vs the market
Maiden-318(76.0% Sabalenka)
Market-828(89.2% Sabalenka)
Sources: . These are the odds converted to a %, with no juice taken out.
Surface ratings
Hard rating
Aryna Sabalenka
2185
Camila Osorio
1717
Overall rating
Aryna Sabalenka
2177
Camila Osorio
1786
Serve
Serve (last 52 weeks)
Aryna Sabalenka
Camila Osorio
1st serve in
59.6%
65.8%
1st serve points won
67%
61.6%
2nd serve points won
44.9%
43.7%
Form
Aryna Sabalenka
7–3
Camila Osorio
5–5
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
Who is predicted to win Aryna Sabalenka vs Camila Osorio?
Maiden gives Aryna Sabalenka a 76% chance to beat Camila Osorio in the US Open first round on August 31, 2026.
How confident is the Aryna Sabalenka pick?
76% is a “Strong” tier pick. When we make a pick around 76%, picks in that range have won 73% of the time (37 so far). See the track record page for the full table.