Ekaterina Alexandrova won 7-6(3) 4-6 6-4
We got this one wrong. Our final number was 84% on Aryna Sabalenka; Ekaterina Alexandrova won 7-6(3) 4-6 6-4.
A spot in the next round is at stake on Saturday, when Aryna Sabalenka goes up against Ekaterina Alexandrova in the Toronto round of 16. Aryna Sabalenka has won 7 of the last 10. Ekaterina Alexandrova has won 6 of the last 10.
There's a wide gap in our ratings on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Sabalenka win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.
Hard rating
Overall rating
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Aryna Sabalenka | Ekaterina Alexandrova |
|---|---|---|
| 1st serve in | 59.7% | 58.8% |
| 1st serve points won | 67.2% | 66.8% |
| 2nd serve points won | 44.7% | 42.7% |
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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