Elena Rybakina won 6-4 5-7 6-2
We got this one wrong. Our final number was 52% on Aryna Sabalenka; Elena Rybakina won 6-4 5-7 6-2.
It all comes down to Saturday at US Open, where Aryna Sabalenka faces Elena Rybakina for the trophy. Aryna Sabalenka brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Elena Rybakina is rolling — 9 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play.
Neither the serve numbers nor the ratings separate these two by much, which is why our number stays close to even. Little separates them; Sabalenka gets the nod on the finest of margins.
Hard rating
Overall rating
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Aryna Sabalenka | Elena Rybakina |
|---|---|---|
| 1st serve in | 59.6% | 57.2% |
| 1st serve points won | 67% | 70% |
| 2nd serve points won | 44.9% | 46.5% |
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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