Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula meet in the semifinal at US Open on Thursday. Aryna Sabalenka brings a 5-match winning streak into this one, 8-2 across the last ten. Jessica Pegula is rolling — 4 straight wins, 9 of 10 in recent play.
Hold strength tells the story — 67% versus 63.9% on first-serve points in Sabalenka's favor. The edge belongs to Sabalenka — real, but not the kind you take for granted at this level.
The numbers behind the pick
Serve
| Serve (last 52 weeks) | Aryna Sabalenka | Jessica Pegula |
|---|
| 1st serve in | 59.6% | 61% |
| 1st serve points won | 67% | 63.9% |
| 2nd serve points won | 44.9% | 47.9% |
The rest of the numbers
This page shows one set score: the most likely way our pick wins. Pro puts a number on every other score the match could end in, including the ones where our pick loses.
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