Sunday's US Open round of 16 pits Aryna Sabalenka against Taylor Townsend on hard. Aryna Sabalenka brings a 3-match winning streak into this one, 7-3 across the last ten. Taylor Townsend has won 3 in a row and 6 of the last 10 overall.

Aryna Sabalenka simply rates much higher on hard, and our number follows from it. Anything other than a Sabalenka win would rank among the bigger surprises of the week.